Age 55, income 4.5%

The cautious portfolio will allow for an income growth until roughly age 77, after which the income will start to decline. In the moderate aggressive portfolio, however, the capital is sufficient to provide this same level of income until after the age of 90.

This formula is therefore appropriate for younger clients, as long as they take on more risk.

Source: Glacier ICE

Age 68, income 5.8%

The same pattern is evident, which again suggests that the higher risk portfolio should offer the better outcome over the longer term.

Source: Glacier ICE

Points for consideration

Changing the age to a decimal, and then subtracting 1% to determine the starting income level, seems to be a relatively accurate way of ensuring an escalating income of 5% per annum, until roughly age 80. However, roughly 10% of the South African population do live beyond age 80, and where people have access to better medical care, this percentage is a lot higher.

By taking on more risk, income longevity becomes less of a concern for the broader population as very few people do live up to the age of 90.

For clients taking on a moderate aggressive risk, in line with most balanced funds, this is a suitable formula to determine the starting income.

However, the volatility of a moderate aggressive portfolio not only makes the investment journey less comfortable for the client – due to the ups and downs of market movements – but also holds real risk over extended periods when markets are down, and this manifests in the sequence risk of the portfolio.

Therefore, if one uses this simplified formula to determine the initial income level, it is imperative to find a solution where a return of inflation plus 5% is possible, but at a volatility level similar to a cautious portfolio. This will allow for extra growth while protecting the client against sharp drawdowns, and, over time, sequence risk.

It is not possible to build a portfolio which offers these characteristics by using only normal collective investments, even if the portfolio is properly diversified. Once the portfolio has exposure to sufficient growth assets, the volatility and accompanying risks will follow. One, therefore, needs to consider alternative types of funds that have different return profiles, such as hedge funds (which can give a positive return during a crisis) as well as funds with underlying guarantees that smooth out the volatility. By combining funds such as these, clients have the opportunity to achieve a real return plus 5%, however, the volatility and sequence risk is lowered to that of a cautious portfolio.

Conclusion

The formula where one uses the age of a client, changing it to a decimal and then subtracting 1% from it to determine the starting income of the client, does allow for an escalating income until roughly the age of 80, regardless the age of the client.

However, if a client needs to reduce volatility and decides to rather opt for a cautious portfolio, income longevity remains an issue for those who live beyond age 80.

By increasing the growth to a level of inflation plus 5%, via a moderate aggressive portfolio, one reduces the impact of longevity risk sharply, but the volatility and sequence risk will increase.

By using the Glacier Invest 5% Real Income Solution, which incorporates alternative strategies and fund types, one can achieve the inflation plus 5% return, but at the volatility of a typical cautious portfolio. The formula to determine the initial income, as outlined above, can be achieved by using the Glacier Invest 5% Real Income Solution.